In May 2023, the Dangote Oil Refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, was commissioned in Ibeju-Lekki, on the outskirts of Lagos. The world’s largest single-train refinery owned by the Africa’s richest man, its punters expect it to contribute to Nigeria’s GDP, positively alter the refined petroleum products market dynamics across West Africa, and cut dependence on imported petrol from Europe. This epoch was underscored by the presence of the presidents and heads of state of Ghana, Niger, Senegal and Togo—all of whom are optimistic that the refinery will enhance local supply in their own countries. The epicentre of new urban development, the refinery has also spawned a real estate boom, with estate agents likely to market properties based on their proximity to the refinery, using sales pitches like, “a 20-minute drive from Dangote Refinery”. 

Yet underneath all the fanfare, the refinery epitomises the predicament in which Lagos more broadly finds itself: a conflict between economic advancement and environmental sustainability. This dilemma is shared by most cities across Africa and the global South, all of which aspire to a carbon-free future yet must still depend on fossil fuels for pecuniary subsistence in the present. Indeed, Lagos harbours vaunting green ambitions. Presently the only Nigerian city signed up to the C40 (a global network of cities that adopted a resilient and inclusive climate action plan aligned with Paris Agreement ambitions), the City has also launched the Lagos Action Plan 2020–2025. Intended to confront the City’s key carbon sources—urban waste, energy use and transportation—this updated climate action plan represents the City’s intention to address climate change, acting as the City’s roadmap to zero-carbon status by 2060. 

Despite Lagos city administrators’ resolve and optimism, the practicalities around attaining its carbon-free goal within the next three decades remain daunting and elusive. As Africa’s most populous city, Lagos caters to at least 21 million people, projected to double by 2050. Consequently, the City’s public infrastructure is overburdened and unable to keep up with its spatial and demographic growth. This is a problem primarily birthed by decades of poor planning and neglect in its surly years as Nigeria’s capital, a period whose legacy of labyrinthine socio-spatial challenges ultimately influenced the relocation of the capital to Abuja—a clean slate to start all over.

Domestic energy use is a key source of carbon emissions in Lagos. Like the rest of Nigeria, Lagos regularly experiences power cuts, and residents compensate for the shortfall with power generators, resulting in very high daily carbon emissions from generator fumes (not to mention the clattering orchestra accompanying). In response, the City recently launched the Lagos State Electricity Policy. Hoping to take advantage of the recently passed national bill authorising cities and private entities to generate, transmit and distribute their power, the policy aims for  incremental capacity growth to achieve electricity sufficiency by 2036. While this is encouraging, less so is the fact that the City has yet to leverage its proximity to the Atlantic Ocean to embrace offshore wind turbines that could generate cleaner energy. Instead, many of the City’s planned power projects remain hinged on gas-powered turbines, which Nigeria adopted as a transition fuel, thus calling into question the plausibility of attaining carbon neutrality by 2060. 

Traffic congestion is also a significant contributor to carbon emissions. The Lagosian love of cars and the absence of cheap and efficient public transport with the capacity to accommodate the city’s rapidly growing population have made it so. That said, the City has made substantial investments in building a dedicated BRT system that includes a large fleet of modern, high-capacity buses (along with terminals and bus shelters) and the 2023 completion of the first section (the 27-kilometer Blue Line) of a long-awaited metro light rail. Meanwhile, however, many residents continue to rely on personal vehicles for their daily commute, exacerbating traffic congestion throughout the city. Added to this are the carbon-emitting haulage trucks that move vast shipping containers to and from Lagos’s three ports—among the country’s busiest. Despite the ports’ proximity to subsidiary waterways, these are seldom utilised for transporting large amounts of freight, thus compounding traffic challenges and associated emissions along port corridors.

While the City seems determined to cut its carbon emissions, it is not clear how city administrators intend to address the substantial challenges accompanying this goal. With regards to the transport sector in particular, Lagos needs a comprehensive urban mobility strategy that integrates various modes of transportation, seamlessly connecting all neighbourhoods and suburban areas to the city centre, promoting mass transit, and incentivising non-motorized transport modes like cycling and walking by providing pedestrian pathways like footbridges, sidewalks and dedicated cycling lanes. 

As part of its commitment to transition to electric vehicles, the City recently received two electric buses to use in a test run for establishing an infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs). An agreement signed with Oando Clean Energy Limited (OCEL), this initiative includes deploying electric buses, charging stations and other necessary facilities–all very exciting developments, but will they be enough?  

Despite evident lapses in the execution of its green agenda, Lagos remains the most innovative city in Nigeria and possibly in West Africa. Yet, its challenges—epitomised by the way Dangote Refinery’s opening allows Lagosians to continue with business as usual, even as the City also commits to a zero-carbon future—expose the unfurling contradictions between communal wellbeing, economic prosperity and environmental sustainability.